Events
Terrorism the Games wild card
Monday 1 February 2010
In a recent article in The Age, Clive Williams of Macquarie University's Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism suggested that athletes booked in to attend the Commonwealth games in India need to consider a terrorist attack as a potential wildcard. Whilst an interesting perspective, I'd like to suggest that a potential terrorist attack at the Commonwealth Games does not fit the true criteria of a 'Wildcard' event. In the true sense of Wildcard events, a terrorist attack on the games seems far more likely than not likely.
John Petersen of The Arlington Institute in the United States provides perhaps the clearest or most widely adopted definition of a Wildcard event: 'A low probability, high impact event that would severely disrupt the human condition'.
In other words, the event would be a major disruption BUT (and here's the thing about Wildcards) the probability of the event occuring is extremely small.
Which is why I differ from Clive Williams' assessment. The track record in the dusty part of Asia suggests that interpreting a terrorist attack on athletes in India as a Wildcard (i.e 'highly unlikely), downgrades significantly the potential of such an event. Rather, it is more likely that the signals we can see emerging on the subcontinent suggest that a Cascading Discontinuity Set (CDS) is the likely outcome - a series of smaller, ongoing events that lead to a Wildcard like outcome - severely impacting the human condition. The recent pattern in and around India would upgrade a terrorist attack during or on the games significantly.
And athletes really do need to consider the potential - just doing so understanding that the possible terrorist event fits more in the 'likely' than 'highly unlikely' camp. Sad but true
Keep informed - Sign up
Events
Monday 6 February 2012
There's a shift underway in the mining industry that will likely catch Australian airlines out if they aren't paying attention - the shift toward 'remote' mining. Remote mining is being pushed by the automation ability across all aspects of current mining technology, which at the basic level, means that fewer humans are needed on site in mines. And that suggests a major challenge for airline companies of all sizes, who've come to rely on the FIFO (fly in and fly out) model of human capability delivery to mines across Australia. The technology advancements are across almost all aspects of mining operations with perhaps just one area (maintenance) still likely to need onsite human capabilities.
Read more...
Thursday 19 January 2012
Simple question really. Or is it? In this quick article I provide an overview of the difference between strategy that is D.E.A.D and A.L.I.V.E Think of it as a potential 'do this' collection for your Organisation
Read more...
Monday 16 January 2012
Lots of thoughts for the year already underway, with some covering a range of ideas from 'don't cut corners on relative incidentals when the project is significant for you' to 'you can't change your approach if you keep thinking inside the same box'. But for now a reminder about planning for your future: If you know your future is a straight line, then you can afford to only look in the rear view mirror.
Read more...
